I'm calling it now. The culprit is either her mother (or relative from the mother's side of the family acting with mom's knowledge) or the Crown Prince's aide with the dark hair. I sensed some resentment when Ayla's mom explained that her dad inherited the dukedom after marrying into her family. Also, she actively tried to dissuade the duke's suspicions about Ayla's first accident with a ton of clear evidence.