
I'll share spoilers with you, your theory is not that wrong
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From what I remember, the emperor kidnapped the duke's wife while she was pregnant (with our FL). The empress' sister, the one know as a thief by everyone, tried to help the duke's wife and she was able to flee the palace with the newborn FL.
The thief isn't her biological mother, but the adoptive that tried to protect her and the duchess.
The duchess died in the palace during childbirth or right after FL is taken from her.
This is from novel updates, but it's kinda crazy as FL doesn't look like anything like the duchess or duke, and looks way more like the emperor.
Wait I might be tripping but how long ago did the dukes wife die? And the how long ago did the girls mother die?