Am I onto something or is this 12am me talking?

This red head lady is the princess of aragon who was suppose to marry jacob and the pope set up this marriage so their children would inherit the dukedom of nothemburland(?) or whatever. The question is why with robert thought? I'm thinking since the pope effed it up with jacob set up he's trying to better his relationship with biaca as she's the saint and marry the princess (maybe his niece) to her very close knight. I might not be right and the pope might be villainous too but i feel like he isn't evil as of yet. Still I'm like 80% sure she's the princess