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That actually makes a lot of sense,p. I haven’t read this in ages since it hurts it was left so incomplete, but reading your hypothesis, I remembered that one twin was absolutely repulsed by what the other twin was doing, so your hypothesis does make a lot of sense. I’m no psychologist and trauma can make you do a lot of things, but I wonder if it would someone to do something they absolutely repulsed them originally?
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The human brain is incredibly complex, it's not outside of the impossible. I just think it's too obvious and would make the story less interesting as a whole for me personally. I mean it would also be plausible that Roku tries to live Kei's life in his stead and started to pick up his behavioural patterns, but I don't see how this would do him justice as Kei's one wish was to be with Roku.
And I also think Roku had huge troubles to even grasp what kind of person his brother really was. Everything afterwards happened so very quickly, not much time to really process, but sure, might as well be possible. Whatever satisfies your need for closure, haha.
I have the strong impression that Roku was actually the one who died. Kei jumped from the top, not expecting Roku to follow and when he woke up in the hospital he realised that his brother Roku wasn't there.
I know that it would make no sense for the mother and the hospital to mistake them, but this piece of information was given by "Roku", so it's possible that it's not reliable.
This would explain why his habits continued, smoking and sleeping with men, because to me it would make even less sense that Roku would pick up the habits his brother had, considering how deeply revolting it was for him. The one greeting him in the mirror would be, himself, Kei. In that case he would despise his own reflection over everything, because he thinks he should have been the one to die, not his brother Roku.
His mother might have given in to this "switch" after he went wreck havoc with the mirrors. He was away for a year, maybe they tried to observe the dissociation and personality disorder after the coma and decided that it would be best to allow him to introduce himself back to society as "Roku" as long as he was stable in other aspects. So Kei continues to live his life as "Roku" within his abilities. He refuses to go to his therapy sessions, not wanting to be reminded over and over again that he is in fact Kei, not Roku.
I'm not sure about the basketball practice, but it seemed like he was either skipping practice or being late, which would make sense as his initial interest was with archery. And what he would be praying on the roof top for would be forgiveness. Forgiveness for him being alive instead of Roku and making amends by keeping "Roku" alive.
Last thing that would not support this theory at all is the mole under his right eye, but uhh, he could easily have painted it on or get a tattoo.
As the author seems to have dropped this project there's no way to confirm this but this is how I would have written it if I were to continue this story. Maybe you can find solace in my version, maybe you can't, it's up to you.